Daniel Walker
Recent Bitcoin market activity demonstrates resilience despite periods of price volatility, according to analysts from Glassnode. The drawdowns during this bull market cycle have been relatively shallow, following the patterns seen in previous uptrends. This suggests that the current market structure remains consistent with historical bull markets, indicating robust demand and limited scale of recent corrections.
In Wednesdayโs Glassnode Onchain Newsletter, analysts pointed out that although BTC has faced pullbacks, the market structure has remained resilient. “Bull market drawdowns remain relatively shallow, consistent with historical bull market trends, which highlights the resilience of the current cycle,” the report said.
At the end of September, Bitcoinโs price dropped from around $66,000 to a low of $60,000 by October 3. Since then, the price has stabilized within a range between $62,000 and $63,000.
Strong Demand Supports BTC’s Resilience
The report noted that while BTC has experienced corrections, these have been milder compared to previous market cycles. Analysts emphasized that demand-side dynamics are helping to prevent more significant declines.
Two key metrics Glassnode highlights are the True-Market Mean and the Active Investor Price. These metrics help estimate the average cost basis for BTC investors. The True-Market Mean reflects the average price at which BTC has been acquired by all market participants over time, while the Active Investor Price focuses on the average cost-basis of investors who have traded more recently. Bitcoinโs spot price has stayed above both levels for most of the year, signaling a strong support base that helps stabilize the market during price dips.
“Investor behavior remains robust, with significant demand cushioning the impact of corrections,” Glassnode analysts added.
Short-Term Bitcoin Holders in Focus
A key group to watch, according to the report, is the short-term BTC holdersโthose who purchased BTC within the last one to three months. The price of BTC has reclaimed the critical cost-basis for this group, which is seen as an encouraging sign of market strength. However, if Bitcoin’s price drops below this level, short-term holders may feel pressured to sell, potentially increasing market volatility.
The report also mentioned the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for new investors, which has risen from its lows observed in early August during the yen-carry trade unwind. This improvement in the MVRV ratio, along with its recovery above the 90-day moving average, signals positive market momentum.
BTC: Short-Term Holder MVRV Indicator – Glassnode
CryptoQuant Cites Critical Price Levels
CryptoQuant, another analytics platform, stressed the importance of monitoring the cost-basis of short-term holders. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), CryptoQuant stated that a close above $64,500 would strengthen the bullish case, but if Bitcoinโs price falls below the $61,600 level (the average cost for 1-3 month holders), investor patience could be tested.
Bitcoinโs price was approximately $60.800, reflecting a 2% decrease over the past 24 hours, according to data from PRIME Crypto. The global cryptocurrency market cap stands at $2.27 trillion, with total 24-hour trading volume at $82.7 billion. BTC dominance is 54.2%, while Ethereum holds 12.9%, according to Coingecko data.
