James Richardson
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, outlined three key factors influencing the likelihood of Bitcoin surpassing $80,000 by the end of this quarter. These factors include the outcome of the U.S. election, the state of the economy, and the absence of major disruptions within the crypto industry.
Bitwise had earlier forecasted that BTC would more than double from its previous value of $42,400 to over $80,000 by year-end, driven by the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and Bitcoinโs fourth halving event. In a memo to clients, Hougan reaffirmed this prediction, but highlighted that the U.S. election is a crucial variable. While many view the election as a simple binary between pro-crypto Donald Trump and anti-crypto Kamala Harris, Hougan believes the situation is more complex within the Democratic Party, which holds both anti-crypto and pro-crypto factions.
He stated that for BTC to thrive, it doesnโt need active support from politicians but rather a neutral stance. A Democratic sweep across the presidency and both houses of Congress would likely lead to a hostile environment for crypto, but anything short of that would be less harmful.
On the economic front, Hougan pointed to the need for two more interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points by year-end, alongside additional fiscal stimulus from China, as further catalysts for a BTC rally. He emphasized that public distrust in government management of money remains one of Bitcoinโs strongest appeals.
Additionally, Hougan stressed the importance of stability within the crypto sector, noting that no major hacks, lawsuits, or sudden market disruptions involving previously locked coins should occur if BTC is to achieve the $80,000 milestone this year.
Beyond BTC, Hougan also mentioned that a broader rally in the cryptocurrency market could provide additional momentum. Although Bitcoin doesnโt depend on altcoins like Ethereum or Solana for its long-term success, he believes that a market-wide surge in pro-crypto sentiment could propel Bitcoin toward $100,000 in the coming months.
Hougan highlighted that despite the subdued activity in altcoins, BTC has already seen a strong performance in 2023, with a 47.5% increase year-to-date. The approval of spot BTC ETFs, along with growing institutional adoption and Bitcoin entering the political conversation, positions Bitcoin well for continued growth. Even if the $80,000 target isnโt hit in 2023, Hougan concluded that BTC is on track for significant gains in 2025.
