Étienne Girard
Despite recently stalling around the $150 mark, Solana (SOL) continues to spark debate in the crypto community. One prominent analyst has gone as far as to predict a massive rally to $4,500, though a closer look at current metrics suggests that such a move may not be imminent.
Crypto analyst Ali Charts shared a bold forecast for Solana, highlighting a cup-and-handle formation on the altcoin’s weekly chart. According to his analysis, a breakout above the pattern’s handle could trigger a parabolic price surge toward the $4,500 level.
Currently, Solana is trading at $148, reflecting a 2% dip in the past 24 hours, largely influenced by market-wide uncertainty. While the technical setup appears promising, the lack of confirmation in the form of a weekly close above resistance makes the breakout speculative for now.
Why a Short-Term Surge to $4,500 Seems Unlikely
Several key data points challenge the likelihood of Solana reaching $4,500 in the short term:
1. Meme Coin Hype is Fading on Solana
According to DeFiLlama, DEX trading volume on Solana has plummeted from $20 billion to just $6 billion in under a week. This sharp drop coincides with the cooling hype around meme coins on the network—an early sign of waning momentum.
2. Retail Interest is Declining
Metrics from Santiment show a steep drop in Solana’s social volume, falling from a peak of 2,579 mentions to only 165. Historically, low social engagement has often preceded flat or bearish price action, pointing to diminished retail enthusiasm.
3. Futures Traders Turn Bearish
Data from Coinglass reveals that Solana’s funding rate has flipped negative, indicating that short positions now dominate the futures market. This is a bearish signal, suggesting that traders expect further price decline rather than a sudden move toward $4,500.
The Verdict: A Breakout is Possible—But Not Yet
While the cup-and-handle pattern offers a technically bullish setup, current sentiment and market activity do not yet support a near-term rally to such lofty heights. For Solana to begin that journey, it must first regain momentum across social, trading, and investor behavior metrics.
