Isabella García
Bitcoin’s upward momentum could gain serious traction if ongoing concerns about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence continue to escalate, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered. Kendrick views the situation as a government-sector risk—a scenario where Bitcoin historically shines as a decentralized hedge against systemic threats.
“When confidence in traditional financial institutions is under pressure—whether from the private or public sector—Bitcoin tends to outperform,” Kendrick explained in a note shared with PRIME on Tuesday.
Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Government-Sector Uncertainty
The latest market concerns revolve around potential changes in Fed leadership, particularly speculation over Chair Jerome Powell’s replacement, which Kendrick considers a direct threat to the central bank’s independence. This, he suggests, falls under macro-level government risk—a factor that reinforces Bitcoin’s value proposition as an alternative financial asset.
He emphasized that this risk can be measured by watching the U.S. Treasury term premium, which recently hit a 12-year high. Specifically, the 10-year term premium has surged, suggesting heightened uncertainty in traditional financial markets.
“If these Fed-related pressures persist, Bitcoin could rally further,” Kendrick noted. “This might be the trigger needed to reach new record highs.”
Bitcoin Lagging Behind Treasury Premium Surge — But Not for Long
Although Bitcoin and the Treasury term premium have moved in tandem since early 2024, Kendrick observed a recent divergence, with BTC lagging behind. He attributes this temporary decoupling to Bitcoin behaving more like a tech growth stock, reacting to broader macroeconomic headlines—such as recent U.S. tariff policy threats.
This misalignment, however, may represent a buying opportunity, he suggests, as Bitcoin could soon realign with the surging premium.
“As long as the Fed independence debate continues, Bitcoin has room to catch up — and move significantly higher,” Kendrick said.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $91,200, marking a 4% gain in the past 24 hours, according to PRIME’s price tracker.
BTC Behaving Like a Tech Stock in Calm Markets
When financial stability risks are not front and center, Kendrick says Bitcoin behaves similarly to other high-growth tech equities, such as the “Magnificent Seven” (Mag7). This includes trading patterns influenced by innovation cycles and investor sentiment in risk-on environments.
Still, in times of macro uncertainty, Bitcoin tends to revert to its core identity as a store of value and hedge.
Standard Chartered Stands by Aggressive Bitcoin Price Targets
Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick is maintaining his long-term outlook. His team forecasts Bitcoin to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, with a more ambitious target of $500,000 by the end of 2028.
In addition to bullish Bitcoin projections, Kendrick has also issued bold calls for other digital assets:
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AVAX (Avalanche): Potential 10x growth to $250 by 2029
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XRP: Expected to reach $12.50 by 2028, over 500% upside
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ETH (Ethereum): Revised 2025 target lowered to $4,000
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Stablecoin Market: Forecasted to surge nearly 10x to $2 trillion by 2028, largely driven by anticipated U.S. regulatory frameworks
Kendrick emphasized that Standard Chartered’s crypto analysts do not personally hold digital assets, in a disclosure made to PRIME on April 15.
