Daniel Walker
Bitcoin wrapped up June with a historic monthly close above $104,000, not only marking its strongest Q2 performance ever, but also exposing a major flaw in how we read market activity: on-chain data isnโt telling the full story.
While standard blockchain analytics showed limited buyer engagement, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in nearly $4 billion in inflows over just 12 daysโa clear signal of intensifying institutional interest.
According to data from SoSoValue, a single-day influx of $550 million on June 25 helped drive this momentum.
Yet this surge barely registered on traditional blockchain indicators. Why? Because institutions donโt trade like retail investorsโand their strategies often bypass on-chain visibility entirely.
How Institutions Stay Under the Radar
Over-the-counter (OTC) desks, centralized exchanges, and inactive wallets are the tools of choice for major players. These channels allow large-volume trades to take place without impacting market prices or triggering visible blockchain signals.
โOn-chain data doesnโt fully reflect institutional behavior,โ said Aslan Tashtanov, a blockchain engineer involved with Mysten Labsโ DeepBook. โTheir trades are executed in environments that leave minimal on-chain footprint.โ
This stealthy approach allows billions to flow into the market without making waves on blockchain explorers.
The On-Chain Illusion
Retail spot trading has remained largely neutral, even amid Bitcoin’s recent price gains. Meanwhile, Bitcoin held in known OTC addresses has dropped to record lows, especially among miner-linked wallets, which have seen balances fall 18% since January, according to CryptoQuant.
Miners, often viewed as institutional-level holders, significantly impact market flowsโso declining balances in their OTC wallets suggest changes in how these volumes are being managed.
Yet even this tells only part of the story.
โInstitutional buying via ETFs and ETPs doesnโt show up on-chain,โ said Kony Kwong, CEO of GAIB. โThis creates a mismatch, where real demand is underestimated.โ
Halving Didnโt Spark the Expected Rally
Despite entering a post-halving market, where Bitcoin supply is more constrained, prices remained unexpectedly subdued. After the April 2024 halving, which cut miner rewards in half, Bitcoin failed to follow the explosive price patterns of previous cycles.
In fact, April 2025 marked the worst-performing post-halving year on record, with Bitcoin dipping to $75,000, largely due to macroeconomic uncertainty driven by Trump’s tariff threats.
Since then, the asset has hovered between $80,000 and $90,000, a notably weaker performance compared to previous post-halving surges, according to Kaiko Research.
Liquidity and Infrastructure Lag Behind Demand
Even as demand grows, limited on-chain liquidity is slowing institutional integration.
โThere just isnโt enough on-chain liquidity to accommodate institutional-level buying,โ said Tashtanov.
To bridge the gap, other blockchain ecosystems like Sui are stepping in. Sui has carved out a niche in Bitcoin-based DeFi, now representing over 10% of Suiโs total value locked (TVL).
โSui is playing an essential role in enabling institutional access to Bitcoinโs decentralized finance,โ Tashtanov noted.
Conclusion: The Institutional Wave Is RealโJust Harder to See
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $106,200, with daily trading volume hovering near $25.7 billion, according to CoinGecko. But if youโre relying on on-chain metrics alone, you might be missing the real drivers of this market.
As the crypto landscape evolves, traditional blockchain analytics must adaptโor risk overlooking the next wave of institutional adoption already in motion.
