Lucía Peña
With Donald Trump’s recent U.S. presidential victory, JPMorgan analysts anticipate a strong performance for both gold and Bitcoin, attributing this outlook to the “debasement trade.”
The debasement trade is an investment strategy that gains from currency devaluation, which often occurs with inflationary or expansionary fiscal policies. Assets like gold and BTC, seen as safe stores of value, can retain their worth even as a currency’s purchasing power erodes. “The debasement trade is likely to be fueled by tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and an expansive fiscal approach,” noted JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, in their latest report. They remarked that while gold prices initially dipped, this did not indicate a rejection of the debasement strategy, as BTC surged following Trump’s victory.
Bitcoin prices hit an all-time high of $76,244 on November 6, the day the election results were confirmed. The leading cryptocurrency has since stabilized around $75,100.
When asked about a specific target for BTC in 2025, Panigirtzoglou stated that JPMorgan remains “positive on BTC,” without disclosing an exact figure.
JPMorgan Expectations for Gold and Bitcoin Price Growth
JPMorgan analysts expect that central bank purchasing of gold will significantly influence gold’s price movement through 2025. After a surge in 2022, driven by the Ukraine conflict and sanctions against Russia, central banks increased gold reserves. While China’s central bank has paused gold purchases since April, ongoing tariffs and geopolitical factors could encourage a shift from dollar reserves to gold.
Retail interest in both gold and Bitcoin has also grown, with increased flows into gold and BTC ETFs since last summer, which analysts believe will continue through 2025. The Trump administration’s policies are expected to further support these assets.
Additionally, Bitcoin may see added demand from MicroStrategy’s ambitious “21/21 Plan,” a three-year BTC acquisition strategy aimed at raising $42 billion—split between equity and fixed-income securities. MicroStrategy plans to invest $10 billion in Bitcoin in 2025 alone, roughly equaling the company’s cumulative BTC purchases since mid-2020, according to the JPMorgan report.
With the combined influence of supportive policies and increased institutional investments, gold and BTC may be poised for continued growth in the years to come.
