Chiara Bianchi
According to data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, the winning odds heavily favor Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, with his chances reaching an impressive 99%. In contrast, Democratic contender Kamala Harris trails far behind, holding only a 1% likelihood of victory.
This surge in Trump’s odds marks a significant increase from the 58% probability observed as of 7 PM on Tuesday. As per AP News, Donald Trump has taken the lead in the vote count, currently holding 267 electoral votes compared to Harris’s 224, in the race to the 270-vote finish line.
Polymarket clarified that its prediction market would resolve when AP, Fox, and NBC collectively declare a winner. In the rare event they do not, the market will remain open until inauguration, defaulting to the inaugurated candidate.
If Trump secures victory, a shift in the U.S. crypto landscape could be on the horizon. Initially skeptical of the crypto industry, the 78-year-old politician has recently pivoted, embracing a pro-crypto stance, even dubbing himself the “Crypto President” as part of his campaign. Kamala Harris has also voiced support for blockchain, yet Trump is generally seen as the more favorable candidate for crypto’s future in America. The market’s positive response to Trump’s rising odds suggests a strong sentiment in favor of his win among crypto investors.
Bitcoin and Altcoins React to Trump’s Surging Odds
As Trump’s odds of winning have grown, Bitcoin has surged past previous records, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $75,361. At the time of writing, Bitcoin holds steady around $73,600, representing a 6.93% gain over the past 24 hours. Its market cap now stands at $1.45 trillion, making up nearly 60% of the total crypto market.
Despite this rally, Bitcoin briefly dipped to $66,853 before recovering to over $68,700, resulting in over $200 million in liquidations in the leveraged crypto market, including $148 million from long positions.
Ethereum is similarly enjoying a bullish run, with a 6.06% increase over the past 24 hours. Currently trading at $2,591.41, Ethereum’s trading volume has also seen a significant boost, climbing by 83.68% in a day. Other altcoins, including Solana, have posted strong gains, highlighting market enthusiasm.
Dogecoin, a favorite of Trump supporter Elon Musk, surged 26.64% in the past day, reflecting optimism tied to Trump’s rising odds. With a potential shift in SEC regulatory strategies, the crypto sector may see favorable policy changes ahead.
