Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election have increased to 50.6% on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, surpassing Vice President Kamala Harris, who currently stands at 48.4%. This shift in odds comes as the $1.3 billion Polymarket bet has seen fluctuations ever since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July.
Throughout September, Harris held the lead on Polymarket, but recent betting trends have swung in Trump’s favor. These prediction markets, where real money is wagered, are often viewed as more accurate than traditional polls. For example, Tesla CEO Elon Musk highlighted on X (formerly Twitter) that Trump is now leading Harris by 3%, despite national polling averages from The New York Times showing Harris slightly ahead with 49% to Trump’s 47%.
Elon Musk Backs Donald Trump
In a notable move, Elon Musk made his first appearance at one of Trump’s rallies in Butler, Pennsylvania, this past weekend. This rally took place in the same town where Trump survived an assassination attempt. Musk, donning a “Make America Great Again” hat, voiced his support for Trump, calling him the only candidate who could “preserve democracy in America,” according to a report from AP News.
Cryptocurrency and the 2024 Election
Cryptocurrency has become a key topic in the 2024 presidential race, with Trump openly supporting crypto, NFTs, and decentralized finance (DeFi). While Trump has been vocal on this subject, Kamala Harris only recently addressed the topic, stating last month that she aims to promote growth in “digital assets.” However, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently expressed uncertainty regarding Harris’ position on crypto. He commented that, despite Harris’ statements, “crypto wins no matter what happens” in the upcoming election.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, and the race between Trump and Harris continues to tighten across both prediction markets and national polls.