James Richardson
As crypto markets move toward 2026, the next major transformation appears to be happening beneath the surface rather than on price charts. According to a new outlook from Kraken, macroeconomic uncertainty and evolving market structure are redefining how bitcoin and digital assets respond to capital flows.
Krakenโs Global Economist Thomas Perfumo says bitcoin remains the key barometer for market risk โ but the mechanics of demand, liquidity, and price discovery have fundamentally changed.
Perfumo highlighted the growing influence of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and crypto-focused treasury companies in shaping market behavior. While these vehicles generated nearly $44 billion in net spot bitcoin demand in 2025, price performance failed to match prior cycle expectations.
According to Kraken, long-term holders supplied much of the available bitcoin, absorbing institutional inflows without triggering the reflexive rallies seen in earlier bull markets. The result is a structurally tighter market that can handle massive demand without explosive upside.
โThe market is now capable of absorbing enormous inflows without the automatic price acceleration seen in previous cycles,โ Perfumo noted.
Macro Forces Remain the Dominant Risk Driver
Despite structural evolution, Kraken warns that macroeconomic conditions still dominate crypto market swings. Perfumo pointed to:
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Slower global growth expectations
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Persistent inflation
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A more cautious pace of monetary easing
These factors continue to weigh on risk assets. Kraken cautioned that periods of calm may disguise delayed volatility, especially if liquidity tightens again.
Stablecoins and Regulation Emerge as 2026 Pillars
Krakenโs outlook also emphasized stablecoins and regulation as defining elements for crypto markets in 2026.
Perfumo said stablecoin liquidity has reached record highs, while U.S. regulatory momentum โ including legislation such as the GENIUS Act and broader market structure reforms โ could reshape where onchain liquidity forms and how innovation clusters across ecosystems.
Clearer rules may ultimately concentrate capital and development activity, favoring compliant and scalable networks.
ETF and Treasury Momentum Faces Headwinds
While institutions remain central to bitcoinโs trajectory, Kraken noted that ETF inflows slowed in 2025 compared with 2024. At the same time, digital asset treasury firms may struggle to issue new equity as valuation premiums compress, reducing their ability to fuel another major upside phase without a clear risk-on environment.
This dynamic suggests bitcoinโs next breakout may require renewed institutional confidence and supportive macro conditions.
Bitcoinโs Role as a Portfolio Diversifier
ARK Invest echoed Krakenโs macro-first view in its 2026 outlook. Cathie Wood highlighted how capital rotated in 2025, with gold rising 65% while bitcoin declined 6%, despite bitcoinโs fixed supply and long-term scarcity advantages.
Wood emphasized that bitcoin continues to show low correlation with traditional asset classes, strengthening its case as a portfolio diversifier.
โBitcoinโs correlation with gold is lower than the correlation between equities and bonds,โ Wood said, reinforcing its appeal for investors seeking higher risk-adjusted returns.
Key Price Levels Traders Are Watching
From a market perspective, traders are focused on whether bitcoinโs approach toward $100,000 becomes a breakout or a consolidation phase.
Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, described bitcoin as undervalued relative to U.S. equities after months of divergence. He expects either a retest of $90,000 or a continuation toward $100,000, which he identified as a major resistance zone.
Beyond Bitcoin: Tokenization and DeFi Economics
Looking past bitcoin, Kraken flagged tokenization and DeFi token economics as longer-term drivers for 2026 liquidity formation.
Standard Chartered analysts share this view, projecting Ethereum outperformance as institutions increasingly onboard tokenized real-world assets. Perfumo added that tokenized financial assets expanded rapidly over the past year, with future tokenization of large-cap U.S. equities potentially unlocking new global demand and onchain settlement activity.
2026 May Be a Structural Stress Test for Crypto
Across perspectives from Kraken, ARK Invest, and Standard Chartered, a common theme emerges: 2026 may not resemble a traditional crypto cycle.
Instead, it could become a macro-driven stress test, where market structure โ how liquidity enters, how it flows, and where it concentrates โ matters just as much as price action itself.
