Étienne Girard
Bitcoin has crossed the $100,000 milestone for the first time since December 19, 2024, reaching $102,137 with a 4% rise in the last 24 hours, according to PRIME’s Price Page. Similarly, Ether surged beyond $3,700, while Solana climbed past $220, indicating strong momentum in the cryptocurrency market.
The recent rally in Bitcoin is attributed to rising perpetual futures funding rates, which suggest growing market confidence. Coinglass data revealed that the open interest-weighted funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures rose to 0.0113% in the most recent 8-hour contract cycle across major exchanges. Analysts view this as a sign of sustained bullish sentiment ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
QCP Capital analysts highlighted a cautious yet optimistic outlook, noting parallels between the current market dynamics and Bitcoin’s initial breach of $100,000 on December 5. However, they emphasized that funding levels are more stable this time, reducing the likelihood of a near-term squeeze.
In their report, QCP Capital also pointed out that front-end volatility remains subdued, with a neutral options skew indicating no significant short-term directional bias.
Derivatives Traders Spot Early Indicators
Prominent cryptocurrency derivatives trader Gordon Grant underlined Bitcoin’s breakout significance, pointing to “high alpha” flows in short-dated Bitcoin call options. Notably, over 1,000 units of January 7 calls at the $103,000 strike price traded during the weekend, signaling heightened market activity.
Grant compared the situation to early 2023, when similar call activity preceded a rapid Bitcoin rally, and to January 2024, when heavy call volume before iBIT’s launch drove prices from $40,000 to $48,000.
“The tape appears to rhyme,” Grant noted, referencing traders’ focus on Trump’s inauguration as a potential inflection point. Options data also indicated a premium for post-inaugural dates, hinting at expectations for market-moving events.
In the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency short liquidations exceeded $175 million, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $36 million. This upward pressure on prices suggests growing confidence among traders.
Sustained Rally or Short-Term Speculation?
As Bitcoin continues its climb, market participants are debating whether this marks the start of a sustained 2025 rally or is merely short-term speculation tied to Trump-related events. Derivatives traders note that the current volatility and skew structure hint at expectations for broader gains throughout the year, rather than a fleeting surge.
