Lucía Peña
Bitcoin extended its historic rally on Thursday, briefly touching a new all-time high of $111,889, driven by record-breaking demand for crypto derivatives and broader optimism across the digital asset space.
According to data from Coinbase, BTC climbed over 4% before settling at around $111,400, while the GMCI 30 Index, which tracks top altcoins by market cap, also saw meaningful gains—signaling a broad market uptrend.
Data from CoinGlass reveals that Bitcoin options open interest (OI) has now reached $45.8 billion, making up nearly 84% of the entire crypto options market. Ethereum options aren’t far behind either, with OI exceeding $8 billion.
In total, the combined OI for Bitcoin and Ethereum has climbed to over $53.8 billion, the highest level seen since December 2024—underscoring a surge in institutional positioning and speculative activity.
Market Drivers Align for a Powerful Rally
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, noted that all key catalysts for Bitcoin’s bull run appear to be operating in full force.
“Every element we forecasted as bullish is now contributing. From ETF inflows to macroeconomic rotation from gold to bitcoin, it’s all aligning perfectly,” Kendrick wrote in a recent report.
Kendrick reiterated his bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 during Donald Trump’s current presidential term. His argument is backed by SEC 13F filings, which show increasing exposure to BTC via proxy instruments like Strategy’s MSTR shares among sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors.
Capital Rotating from Gold to Bitcoin
Kendrick emphasized that since gold peaked on April 22, investors have pulled $3.6 billion from gold ETFs while pouring over $7.5 billion into Bitcoin ETFs. Interestingly, hedge fund short positions only rose by $1 billion in that period, suggesting the majority of BTC inflows were net-long bets.
He also highlighted Bitcoin’s continued correlation with the U.S. Treasury term premium, suggesting rising fiscal risks are strengthening Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge.
“My forecasts remain steady—$120,000 by Q2’s end, $200,000 by late 2025, and $500,000 by 2028. Everything is on track,” Kendrick said.
Not Everyone Is Euphoric—Volatility Risks Linger
Despite the surge in price and interest, some experts are urging caution.
Dr. Kirill Kretov, a senior analyst at CoinPanel, warned that the market may be entering a fragile phase due to elevated open interest paired with declining liquidity.
“It’s like pulling a rubber band too tight—any small event can trigger a sharp snap,” Kretov said via Telegram. “Since late 2024, I’ve observed steady liquidity drainage. Combined with today’s record OI, this makes the market increasingly reactive.“
Optimism Grows as Institutional Adoption Expands
Still, others remain bullish. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, believes the macroeconomic backdrop is starting to favor cryptocurrencies more broadly.
“With U.S. regulators showing a more favorable stance and major institutions expanding both ETF and spot exposure, the market outlook remains positive,” he said. “As conditions improve, the classic strategy of ‘buy in May and go away’ could turn out to be spot on.“
