Lucía Peña
Bitcoin’s price behavior this year has often been compared to assets like gold and the Nasdaq, but analysts at Bernstein believe these short-term comparisons miss the bigger picture. According to a recent client note, factors like retail selling exhaustion, increased corporate accumulation, and reviving exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows point toward an incoming supply squeeze — a setup that could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
Last week, a major development was announced as SoftBank, Tether, Bitfinex, and Cantor Fitzgerald launched a new Bitcoin treasury project called Twenty One Capital. The venture is expected to start with a massive holding of 42,000 BTC, funded by $900 million from SoftBank, $1.5 billion from Tether, and $600 million from Bitfinex. Bernstein’s analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, revealed that Twenty One Capital also plans a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners to secure an additional $585 million at closing.
Bernstein highlighted that Twenty One aims to mirror the successful Bitcoin investment model employed by Strategy, albeit starting with a smaller pool of capital. While Strategy has raised approximately $22 billion in 2024 and $8.6 billion in 2025 across various financial instruments, Twenty One’s strength lies in its heavyweight backers, particularly Tether, which generated $13 billion in profits from its $148 billion USDT supply this year.
“The race to accumulate Bitcoin is becoming intensely competitive,” Bernstein noted, pointing out that around 80 companies now collectively hold roughly 700,000 BTC, representing 3.4% of Bitcoin’s maximum 21 million coin supply.
ETF Net Inflows Reignite as Bitcoin Price Recovers
After Bitcoin dropped 31% from its record high above $109,000 on Inauguration Day to a low near $75,000, ETF inflows had stagnated. However, that trend reversed last week as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reported net inflows of over $3 billion, marking the strongest performance in five months — and the second-highest weekly inflow ever recorded.
Currently, Bitcoin trades around $95,295, according to PRIME’s Bitcoin price page. Notably, Bitcoin held within ETFs now accounts for more than 5.5% of total supply, translating to approximately $110 billion in assets under management (AUM). Moreover, institutional ownership of ETF assets has surged — now comprising 33% of the total, compared to just 20% last September.
Institutional players such as investment advisors now dominate ETF holdings with 48%, while hedge funds hold 31%, likely using ETFs for basis trade strategies.
Combining ETF holdings and corporate treasuries, Bernstein calculates that nearly 9% of all Bitcoin is now locked away — a sevenfold increase since the launch of spot ETFs in January 2024.
Potential Sovereign Adoption Could Supercharge Bitcoin’s Growth
Bernstein also referenced President Trump’s recent executive order establishing a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, suggesting that sovereign-level Bitcoin adoption could soon expand beyond institutions and corporations.
Chhugani emphasized, “The current corporate and institutional momentum alone is strong enough to drive Bitcoin to new record levels in 2025. However, a significant Bitcoin purchase by the U.S. government could spark a global race among nation-states to accumulate Bitcoin — a scenario not yet priced into the market.”
Shrinking Exchange Balances Add to Supply Pressure
Another bullish indicator Bernstein highlighted is the ongoing decline in Bitcoin held on exchanges, which has dropped from 16% at the end of 2023 to 13% today. Although Bitcoin’s soaring price means dollar values remain higher, the analysts believe this supports the supply squeeze thesis.
However, they also noted that some funds have simply migrated from exchanges to custodians like Coinbase for ETF purposes, meaning overall custodial balances have stayed relatively stable during this cycle.
Bernstein’s Long-Term Bitcoin Price Forecast
Looking ahead, Bernstein projects Bitcoin could reach:
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$200,000 by the end of 2025
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$500,000 by the end of 2029
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$1 million by 2033
They expect occasional one-year bear markets during this trajectory.
“Over the long term, Bitcoin’s value will be driven by its immutable 21 million coin supply and growing demand,” the analysts said. “Today, 19.9 million Bitcoin have already been mined, and almost 95% of the remaining 1.1 million coins will be mined within the next decade. Given the current demand-supply dynamics, it’s difficult to be bearish on Bitcoin.”
