Bitcoin Could Reach $200K by 2025 Regardless of US Election Outcome, Says Bernstein

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Analysts at Bernstein, a research and brokerage firm, have set a bullish $200,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2025, regardless of the results of the U.S. presidential election. The firm highlights that regardless of political shifts, macroeconomic drivers like high debt levels, fiscal policies, and the growing popularity of U.S. spot BTC ETFs will continue to fuel demand for BTC as a hedge asset. “The Bitcoin trend has gained unstoppable momentum, and it’s unlikely to reverse,” analysts stated.

The U.S. election is also expected to create short-term volatility in the cryptocurrency markets. While former President Donald Trump is perceived as more crypto-friendly, a win by Kamala Harris is anticipated to continue the Democrats’ cautious approach toward digital assets. Bernstein projects that a Trump win could lead BTC to rise toward $80,000–$90,000, while a Harris win may initially drive BTC down to $50,000 before a recovery.

Market sentiment regarding the election outcome was reflected in Polymarket data over the weekend, as odds for Trump narrowed against Harris. As of Monday, Polymarket shows Trump with a 57.9% chance compared to Harris’s 42.1%, a notable shift from October’s wider gap. National polls, however, show only a slim margin for Harris, indicating a close race.

Ethereum and Other Crypto Sectors Amid Election Uncertainty

Bernstein analysts also explored how a Harris presidency might impact Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. Some argue that Harris’s administration could favor Ethereum due to spot Ethereum ETFs and potential regulatory scrutiny on new crypto projects. However, Bernstein refutes this zero-sum view, stating that pro-crypto policies could create opportunities across various digital assets.

Bitcoin Mining in Focus Post-Election

Regardless of the election outcome, the crypto mining industry will likely continue to grow, supported by its role in domestic energy production and the AI industry. Trump’s pro-mining stance could further incentivize investment in this sector, though mining’s trajectory is likely to remain positive regardless of the winner.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions across multiple cryptocurrencies, noting that favorable conditions in the crypto market could further bolster the firm’s $200,000 BTC target.