Daniel Walker
Bitcoin is on track to climb as high as $1.4 million by 2035, according to a new long-term outlook published by research firm CF Benchmarks.
In the report, analysts Gabriel Selby and Mark Pilipczuk project that Bitcoin could eventually capture around 33% of the global store-of-value market, translating into a 1,500% gain from its current price near $88,000.
The analysts argue that Bitcoin offers an asymmetrical return structure that sets it apart from traditional asset classes such as equities, bonds, and commodities.
According to the report, even small portfolio allocations of 2% to 5% can meaningfully enhance long-term performance.
โBitcoin improves risk-adjusted returns and expands the efficient frontier,โ the analysts wrote, describing the setup as a favorable risk-reward opportunity for diversified investors.
Volatility Expected to Decline as Markets Mature
While Bitcoin is often criticized for its price swings, CF Benchmarks expects volatility to structurally decline over the next decade.
As liquidity deepens and institutional participation expands, Bitcoinโs volatility is projected to trend toward 28%, driven by:
-
Greater institutional capital involvement
-
More developed derivatives markets
-
Improved market infrastructure and depth
This evolution, the analysts say, could make Bitcoin increasingly attractive to conservative and long-term capital allocators.
Bitcoinโs Growing Membership in the โSeven-Figure Clubโ
CF Benchmarks is far from alone in forecasting a million-dollar Bitcoin.
Several high-profile figures have publicly outlined similar long-term expectations:
-
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicted Bitcoin would surpass $1 million by 2030, citing regulatory clarity, U.S. Bitcoin reserves, and rising ETF demand.
-
Eric Trump, co-founder of American Bitcoin and Trump Organization executive, echoed the $1 million target at a Federal Reserve event.
-
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has projected a seven-figure Bitcoin as early as 2028.
-
Strategy CEO Phong Le expects nation-state adoption to ignite a major Bitcoin accumulation phase starting in 2026.
Macro and Regulatory Tailwinds Fuel Bullish Outlook
Supporters of the bullish thesis point to a powerful mix of catalysts, including:
-
Favorable macroeconomic conditions
-
More crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks
-
Rising institutional and sovereign demand
Economist Ed Yardeni has described the U.S. economy as entering the steepest phase of the โRoaring 2020s,โ driven by artificial intelligence, productivity gains, strong corporate investment, and abundant liquidity โ conditions that historically favor risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Still Below Its All-Time High
Despite the optimistic long-term projections, Bitcoin currently trades around 30% below its October all-time high of $126,000, highlighting the assetโs ongoing volatility even amid strong structural narratives.
Still, CF Benchmarks and other proponents argue that these pullbacks are part of Bitcoinโs maturation process, not a contradiction of its long-term trajectory toward seven-figure valuations.
