Étienne Girard
Grayscale Research believes Bitcoin may reach new all-time highs in 2026, countering widespread concerns that the crypto market is heading into a long-lasting downturn.
In a report released Monday, the firm challenged the popular belief in the four-year Bitcoin cycle—the idea that BTC typically rallies to a peak and then crashes sharply after each halving event.
“Despite uncertainty, we expect the four-year cycle narrative to fall apart, and Bitcoin could set new highs as early as next year,” Grayscale’s research team wrote.
Bitcoin has faced significant volatility since early October, losing 32% from its peak before rebounding. The price briefly dipped to $84,000 on Monday before climbing back to $86,909, according to PRIME’s data.
Grayscale emphasized that long-term BTC holders have historically been rewarded, though they often endure steep pullbacks of 25% or more, even in strong bull markets. These declines, the firm noted, do not necessarily indicate the beginning of a multi-year downtrend.
Why This Market May Break the Pattern
A Different Type of Market Structure
According to Grayscale, the current market looks very different from past cycles. Previous bull runs were driven largely by retail speculation, while today’s environment is dominated by institutional inflows through ETFs and corporate treasuries.
The firm also noted that Bitcoin has not shown the extreme parabolic surge that historically precedes major corrections.
Supportive Macro Conditions
Grayscale said the broader macro environment remains constructive. Potential interest rate cuts and growing bipartisan support for U.S. crypto regulation may offer additional momentum.
BitMine’s Tom Lee Shares the Optimism
Tom Lee, CEO of Ethereum-focused BitMine, echoed Grayscale’s bullish stance, pointing to what he sees as a widening gap between strong crypto fundamentals and declining prices.
“Crypto prices have dropped nonstop, even though fundamentals—wallet growth, on-chain data, fees, tokenization—continue to improve,” Lee wrote on X, arguing that BTC and ETH now offer strong risk/reward upside.
Lee also told CNBC that he expects Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high by January, reinforcing the view that the market downturn may be short-lived.
