James Richardson
Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading at $0.2489 after a 7.2% daily drop, extending its decline to 11% over the past week and 6% across the last 30 days. Despite the retracement, volumes tell a different story. In the past 24 hours, Dogecoin recorded $2.94 billion in trading volume, an 83.4% jump from the previous day.
Derivatives markets also reflected this surge in activity. According to Coinglass data, open interest dropped 8.5% to $4.78 billion, while futures volume spiked 114.5% to $7.43 billion. This trend suggests heightened short-term speculation, profit-taking, and position adjustments as volatility rises.
Retail Investors Remain on the Sidelines
While trading activity is heating up, retail sentiment has not joined the rally. CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci highlighted that Dogecoinโs Futures Retail Activity metric โ a tool that signaled tops during DOGEโs 2021 run to $0.69 and its 2024 rally to $0.46 โ currently sits in a neutral zone.
This implies that institutional investors and smart money continue to drive accumulation, reducing the risk of a retail-driven blow-off top. Historically, muted retail participation has often allowed DOGE to build further upside momentum before corrections set in.
Institutional Catalysts Create Structural Demand
The recent introduction of regulated Dogecoin investment products has also boosted confidence. On Sept. 12, REX-Osprey launched DOJE, the first U.S. spot Dogecoin ETF, under a mutual fund framework, giving investors new exposure channels.
Meanwhile, Grayscaleโs filing for direct asset-backed approval is still pending. Prediction platform Polymarket traders had priced in a 91% likelihood of approval before DOJEโs launch, underlining strong regulatory expectations.
Dogecoin Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
After a rejection above $0.28, DOGE is consolidating near $0.25. Bollinger Bands point to rising volatility, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.7 signals neutral momentum.
Short-term indicators like momentum and MACD suggest near-term weakness, but longer-term moving averages (50, 100, 200-day) remain bullish, supporting a broader uptrend.
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Immediate support: $0.24
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Stronger support: $0.22
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Resistance: $0.285 โ a breakout here could retest $0.30.
If DOGE falls below $0.24, it may revisit the mid-$0.20 range. Conversely, sustained buying pressure above $0.285 could open the door for a test of $0.30 resistance.
